Horn of Africa on Edge as Somalia-Ethiopia Tension Intensifies over Red Sea Access

Horn of Africa on Edge as Somalia-Ethiopia Tension Intensifies over Red Sea Access

Tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia are simmering over a controversial Red Sea access deal. This dispute, fuelled by historical grievances and strategic ambitions, threatens to erupt into a full-blown conflict with devastating consequences for the region.

At the heart of the issue lies Ethiopia's landlocked status. Since Eritrea's secession in 1991, Ethiopia has yearned for a Red Sea foothold. Enter Somaliland, a breakaway region of Somalia with its own aspirations for independence. In January, Ethiopia signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Somaliland, granting it access to a 20-kilometer stretch of coastline and the Berbera port.

Somalia, however, sees this as a blatant violation of its territorial integrity. It has vehemently rejected the deal, calling it "illegal" and a threat to its sovereignty. The Somali government has recalled its ambassador from Ethiopia, threatened military action, and even accused Addis Ababa of plotting attacks on Somali waters and Arab countries in the Red Sea.

The rhetoric is escalating, and the mood in the region is one of deep anxiety. Neighbouring countries like Egypt and Kenya are urging both sides to prioritise diplomacy. Egypt, heavily reliant on the Red Sea for trade, fears that a conflict could disrupt vital shipping lanes. Kenya, a key player in East African stability, has offered its mediation services, but Somalia has so far refused.

The potential consequences of this conflict are dire. A full-blown war could trigger a refugee crisis, destabilise fragile democracies, and derail ongoing efforts to combat terrorism in the region. It could also disrupt crucial trade routes and negatively impact the economies of neighbouring countries.

There are still glimmers of hope. The African Union, regional bodies like IGAD, and influential individual leaders are pushing for dialogue. International actors like the US and the UN are also likely to leverage their diplomatic clout to encourage talks and prevent further escalation.

Three main scenarios could unfold in the coming weeks:

• Diplomatic Breakthrough: If international pressure and regional concerns mount, both sides might eventually come to the negotiating table. This could lead to a revised agreement that respects Somali sovereignty while addressing Ethiopia's needs for Red Sea access.

• Limited Conflict: Skirmishes or localised clashes on the border could occur as both sides test each other's resolve. However, full-scale war remains a less likely scenario due to the significant risks and international pressure for restraint.

• Prolonged Stalemate: The current standoff could persist for an extended period, creating uncertainty and hindering regional stability. This would necessitate sustained diplomatic efforts to prevent further escalation and find a long-term solution.

The Horn of Africa stands at a crossroads. The international community must play a proactive role in preventing this conflict from spiralling out of control. Only through diplomacy, dialogue, and a commitment to regional stability can we avert a humanitarian catastrophe and secure a peaceful future for the Horn of Africa.