Is Saudi Arabia Having Second Thoughts on BRICS Membership?

Saudi Arabia's Hesitation Threatens BRICS Power Dream: US Leverage, African Disappointment and Argentine Realities

Confusion swirls about the status of Saudi Arabia’s BRICS membership. There have been mixed signals about Saudi Arabia's commitment to the group. While their state TV announced their official membership, a minister of commerce later stated they were still considering it. And on January 18, there were reports that Saudi Arabia might be reconsidering joining altogether. The recent expansion of BRICS, the bloc of rising economies, welcomed five new members, doubling its size and aspirations for a multipolar world order. Yet, a cloud hangs over the group's ambitions – doubts swirling around Saudi Arabia's commitment. Should the oil giant balk, the implications for BRICS, Africa, and the global balance of power would be significant.

Firstly, Saudi Arabia's “defection”, following similar hesitation from Argentina, deals a blow to BRICS' narrative of an unstoppable juggernaut. The loss of such a resource-rich member weakens the group's economic clout and casts doubt on its ability to forge a united front against Western dominance. Moreover, it fuels speculation of internal divisions, potentially emboldening the US and its allies.

Speaking of Washington, whispers abound that US pressure played a role in Saudi Arabia's cold feet. The prospect of a powerful BRICS bloc, especially one bolstered by oil powerhouses like Saudi Arabia and Iran, is unlikely to sit well with US interests in the Middle East. If proven, such interference would expose BRICS' vulnerability to external pressure, further undermining its claim to being an independent force.

Africa, another continent keenly eyeing BRICS' potential, could be left disappointed. BRICS expansion promised increased investment and infrastructure development, a lifeline for Africa's struggling economies. Saudi Arabia's departure, however, shrinks the pool of resources and expertise, potentially delaying or curtailing these much-needed projects. African nations may have to recalibrate their expectations and diversify their partnerships, a setback as they seek to break free from their resource-curse and climb the development ladder.

Argentina's rejection offers a cautionary tale for BRICS' expansion strategy. The South American nation cited internal economic challenges and a desire to prioritise South American integration as reasons for declining. This highlights the potential pitfalls of rapid enlargement – not all economies may be prepared for the demands of membership, and regional priorities may clash with the bloc's broader goals.

Looking ahead, BRICS needs to navigate these choppy waters carefully. If Saudi Arabia officially walks away, the group must project unity and resilience, showcasing its ability to function and thrive even without the oil crown jewel. It must also engage in diplomatic damage control, reassuring Africa and other potential members that the bloc remains committed to their development goals.

Ultimately, BRICS' future hinge on its ability to overcome internal divisions, external pressures, and strategic miscalculations. Only by solidifying its economic clout, forging a united front, and addressing the specific needs of its members can the bloc truly realise its ambition of challenging the established world order. The Saudi Arabia saga is a stark reminder that the path to a multipolar world is paved with uncertainties, and BRICS must navigate them with wisdom and resolve.